Uncle Shorty - Emails from a degenerate gambler
January 22, 2012
Uncle Shorty is Alive
My Uncle Shorty is usually prompt with his weekly emails with his picks. This week his picks arrived late.
I thought he was dead. It turns out he was just really pissed at the Denver Broncos and lost a shit-ton last week.
Here is his latest offering heading into conference championship weekend.
We got rolled up last week. Fucking Tebow! The Broncos winning the coin toss and then deferring was a microcosm of the entire game for Denver. There was initial hope, then they pretty much left a steaming pile of poop on the field. With that teaser all we needed was for them to not lose by 21 points. 21 points!!! We were able to hit the second leg of the teaser with Baltimore. But hitting one leg of a two team teaser is like being the toughest kid on the short bus. Nobody gives a shit.
We’re getting back to basics this week. I’m taking New England -7. The Patriots look like they are in full F-you mode and with Green Bay and New Orleans out of the playoffs you know they are smelling blood. There is no way Ed Reed with a twisted up ankle and old ass Ray Lewis are going to be able to keep up with the Gronknandez brothers. Joe Flacco looks like a police academy reject and is throwing like one too. Baltimore scored 20 points last week and 17 of them came off Houston turnovers. New England isn’t going to give the ball away.
The other game is pretty similar. The end of last week’s San Fran game was about as exciting as football gets. Lost in the fun was the fact that New Orleans had five turnovers and still should have won the game had Gregg Williams’ defense not been so awful. How Gregg Williams is able to get another job as a defensive coordinator after the performance his team turned in this season is beyond me. Meanwhile, New York went on the road and beat a team that many people thought would go undefeated a few months ago. Some people like the Niners because they won the earlier meeting. This Giants team is not the one that barely lost in San Francisco two months ago. You can get the better team and 2.5 points. Where do I sign up? The only hang up I have is it’s an East Coast team playing on the West Coast.
Here’s what we’re doing this week:
$165 on NE -7
$55 on NYG +2.5
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January 12, 2012
Uncle Shorty Pays Your Mortgage
Now that I’m putting Uncle Shorty’s emails on the blog, he thinks he’s famous.
Here is his latest email about this weekend’s NFL games.
We nailed Houston & New York last week! The books lost their ass on Houston, New Orleans, and the NO/DET Over so they’re taking it out on us this week. You can’t bet these lines with any chance of making any dough.
New Orleans -3.5
New England -13.5
Baltimore -7.5
Green Bay -7.5 (moved from -8.5)
All these games have hooks on them and they’re nasty ones too. Big difference between -7.5 and -7. New Orleans could blow out San Francisco or they could lose to them. Same goes for Green Bay. Can you really lay 7.5 with Joe Flacco? Not me. Tebow’s weapons are beat up but I’m still not betting against him.
So here is the plan. I don’t plop a lot of money on teasers but these lines are perfect for them. You want your teasers to move past two thresholds. What I’m saying is most scoring is done in threes or sevens. So if you bet a seven point teaser with the Ravens and move the line from 7.5 to just a half point, you crossed two numbers, seven and three. If you took the Ravens -7.5 and they won by 3 or by 7, you lose. The seven point teaser crosses both those numbers and all you need is a Ravens win. There can’t be a tie in a playoff game so that’s even more value for you with this bet. The only way you lose this leg of the parlay is a Texans win. TJ Yates is gonna look a lot like Andy Dalton did last week. I like the Ravens.
Who do we take for the second leg of the parlay? The Giants are capable of beating the Packers or getting crushed. That’s a stay-away. The Saints could blow out the Niners or lose to them. Harbaugh is going to slow that game down and New Orleans is a different team on grass. Stay-away. That leaves us with Denver-New England. The last time these two teams played Denver opened up a lead and then completely fell apart. Everything that could go wrong did. Denver lost by 18.
Remember that stuff about crossing thresholds? If we move the Denver line from 13.5 to 20.5 with the seven point tease, we cross the 14, 17, and 20 number. That’s three thresholds! This looks like a 28-16 game to me. We can give up another 7 and have Denver lose 35-16 and still get paid. If you go the other way and take New England -6.5 you’re also crossing three numbers but the only way to win is to have the Pats win wide. If they lose or win by a field goal or something like 24-20 you lose. I could see Tebow back-dooring you. Take the Denver side and the only way to lose is a complete destruction by the Pats. The only thing that sucks is the start time. 8 PM in the Northeast in January. Good news is it should be around 35 degrees at kickoff.
Lets plop down $260 to win $200…
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January 6, 2012
NFL Wildcard Betting Lines
Every once in a while my Uncle Shorty sends me gambling advice. The emails are usually short, but specific.
Here’s his latest email about how we should bet the NFL Wildcard weekend.
I did a little tinkering on the Moneyline Parlay calculator. I think this would be an excellent hedge bet for a couple of douchebags from the Upper Midwest.
CIN parlayed with ATL (moneyline - no spread) $100 bet would net you your $100 + $536 at the LV Hilton
Take that with:
HOU -3 $100
NYG -3 $100
Let’s put this in play and hope we don’t lose our ass.
While The Wednesday Sellout DOES condone gambling (and lots of it), please know that Uncle Shorty is not a professional handicapper. If you lose a bet, it’s not Uncle Shorty’s fault. Take some damn ownership for your own mistakes. Don’t be like Obama.
Good luck!
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